The Coming XBOX Storm.

  04/10/2001 3:32:09 AM MDT Albuquerque, Nm
  By Dustin D. Brand; Owner AMO

It's nothing new, but MS is about to place yet another market in their favor.
  American made Microsoft is entering a market previously dominated by the Japanese; Game Consoles.

  This article is intended for mature audiences, if you're not mature you're going to get in trouble.

  Well, it's settled, my friend Mike admitted to the Late-Teen/Adult Video Gaming market being much larger than the 6-12yr Old gaming market which Nintendo targets.

  Then again, Mike dresses like a woman sometimes and is secretly a transvestite, so who knows what he's thinking.

  It literally took stacks of actual evidence, and some solid sales numbers to convince him I think, even given Nintendos ovbious success and popularity with little kids. It just so happens though, that Mike plays a Nintendo 64...what's more disturbing to both him and I is that he has friends his age (24-26) that play some of Nintendos kids games. I think that actually scared him (Mike) a bit.

  In my debate on this very subject, which market demographic is bigger, and who does Nintendo actually target their games to, 1 fact came up, time and time again. If Nintendo is facing a problem with targeting to Kids and not adults, then why do their Kids games sell so well?

  Here is the answer, and part of what I thought brought the cross-dresser that is my friend Mike around... Nintendo dominates the Elementary School/below age 12 market of kids. This fact alone explains their dominance in selling kids games. This is of course, unless you don't understand Economics-TRUE, but Mike does, others I regret to say don't use Common Sense.

  If you hadn't noticed, Nintendo isn't doing as well as they used to. Sure, you can't deny that Nintendo is surviving as a company on kids games/franchises, or the fact that currently their Game Boy Advance is breaking all previous records for handheld gaming sales for the world as the whole-from Japan. The bottom line is however, that as the market has gotten bigger, Nintendos share of that market has gotten smaller. This fact is even in the light of their handheld dominance, it just isn't enough to target kids primarily for Nintendo as a whole, anymore at least. Sony undeniably already presented and successfully executed their threat, and now Microsoft plans on doing the same to both Nintendo, but first Sony.

  Since Sony released their Playstation One back in 1996, Nintendos market share shrunk in half. Sony's PS1 outsold the Nintendo 64 more than 2:1, with 72 Million PS1's sold worldwide, and only 31 M N64's sold worldwide. What happened to Nintendo? For starters, they lost huge market share targeting their system to kids as represented by the likes of Sony, and even Sega.

  Nintendo has poor management, a lacking healthy relationship with the Game Developer Community as a whole, poor Business structure, and an outdated sense of their place in the Video Game Industry. It's really sad to say, because I understand where Mike is coming from (minus the cross-dressing part). There are hundreds/thousands of Nintendo 64 Game Players who like Nintendo as a company, but really dislike this "for kids" image they have survived on. Nintendo players like my friend Mike, I'm ashamed to mention, want more mature games, but end up defending the kids games in order not to look or feel like a kid. Yes, a Psychologist would probably agree with that.

  First of all, what's wrong with being a Kid? Nothing at all, those my adult readers are some of the best times of our lives. When you grow up however, things change. Hopefully you gain a sense of maturity? I know Mike has (I've seen him in High-Heels). Many of the other 5% of Nintendo's Adult gamers have also gained a sense of maturity, but inevitably, these very Adults end up defending the very sense of what Nintendo stands for; kids games. This is the image that has hurt Nintendo the worse, which over the past 15 years they built, and extremely well I might add; it just doesn't fly in this market of late-teen/adult game players anymore. Fate is not without a sense of irony Nintendo. If it wasn't for Rare and Goldeneye, I think these Adult Nintendo players would be in hospitals.

  Ok, argue that all you want, but it's the truth, and yes it's hard to swallow when you're an Adult Nintendo player.

  The Game developers, including Nintendo, ALL agree that Nintendo is a company best suited for kids. In fact, here is a recent quote (on a Nintendo fan site nonetheless) "Some of those interviewed believed that the GameCube console would take the number-two position in the marketplace, directly behind Sony's PlayStation 2, with Microsoft in third place. However, those surveyed also agreed that Nintendo would focus its GameCube console primarily to a younger demographic of 6-14 year-olds." - DFC Intelligence 2001

  Please notice that while those surveyed agree Nintendo is targeted as kids, _SOME_ also think Nintendos next system will fall behind Sony in 2nd place. Swap Sony with Microsoft, and I think you have what will happen. MS #1, Nintendo #2, Sony #3. Why? Simply put, there are a statistically relevant majority of late-teen/Adult game players. MS is going after Sony directly, Nintendo is targeted at kids, but depending on how much Sony market share MS gets, Nintendo could be either #2 or #3. Economics and The LAW of Supply and Demand, you can't cheat that LAW...

  Simple. Using this current math (don't argue with my math, I'm a programmer), you can equate the current console markets split between kids and late-teens/adults given the fact that Sega and Sony both, on record, target their systems and games at late-teens/adults, and that Nintendo, on record, admits to targeting their system/s at little kids.

  Total WORLDWIDE SALES for the Console games Market (not including handhelds):
  Sony PS1 Sales 72 Million Units + Sega DreamCast Unit Sales 11 M + Sony PS2 12 M / Nintendo 64 Sales 31 M = 31M / 95M or roughly 1/3 of the industry.
  1/3 of the Industry represents Children/Kids according to this sales number with a margin of error being +- 5%. This means that Nintendo has roughly 33% of the total market share for consoles (they have 95% for handhelds, again targeted at kids), leaving the late-teen/adult gaming market at 67%. This is over the past 5 years though. Doing the same thing yearly, Nintendo doesn't look any better, in fact their market share on a yearly basis went from 33% to less than 14% in the year 2000 and currently, leaving 86% market share to late-teen/adult game players. The data to support this last year/this years data would be hard for most to understand, so just merely think of this figure as a recent fiscal sales figure with matching demographics data.

  In fact, you repeatedly hear that Nintendo holds the top 4 spots (only from Nintendo supporters, and confused cross-dressers) in the top 20 selling games in the year of 2000. This is absolutely false, and who knows where that rumor spread from. Simply stated, Nintendo holds 2 of the 4 top 4 selling games in the US, worldwide the Adult games win - hands down on the Playstation 1/2 or the Dreamcast. What's even more true, is when you add the Computer games to these figures, late-teen/adult Computer games end up best sellers in the top 4 ranking by sales/units sold. Unreal, StarCraft, Diablo 1/2 and Quake III are just a few examples (each selling well over a million copies worldwide) Doom 1 and 2 each sold more than a Million copies, with shareware distribution in the tens of millions of copies, and it still to this day holds the coveted field of being the most popular Computer Game of all time. Check idSoftware's web site for the sales figures on all their games, and their numerous awards. Comparably, the First Mario from Nintendo, and the highest selling game of all time for Nintendo only sold 6.8 Million copies Worldwide, lets remember though that this was more than a decade ago. Saying that the original Mario or NES wasn't a toy for kids is laughable.

  The truth is, Nintendo's Handheld system is often compared to a console when it isn't, and it's sales figures are included in top selling games charts simply because it is a game as it should be, not because it's a handheld game or console game. Even so, Nintendo holds 2 spots in the top 4 (both kids games) not the top 4, and the other 2 spots both go to the Playstation (Adult games). One of Nintendos biggest problems has been it's handheld's dominance, while it's added to their kids market success, it's taken needed profits/market share from their Home Systems, the Nintendo 64, and the coming GameCube (similar to GameBoy).

  While I've poked fun at Mike (the now infamous cross-dresser/confused transvestite), my point is simply to inform all about the industries intricate details and facts, and to point out Mikes preference for shiny red high-heels.

  "You're dealing with a different demographic than other consumer products," said Peter Moore, president of Sega's U.S. unit, explaining why game makers sometimes focus on memorable dates. "Fifteen-, 16-, 17-year old boys go to bed dreaming about this stuff."   I plan on watching May 18ths Eł closely, for this is a tale of 3 battles to come. I'll report as usual, but I'm willing to pay for Mikes operation ($5,000 dollars) if Microsoft ends up a loser. With all the data to support them, the current state of the economy and the overall market share they reach for combined with their overwhelming support from developers and late-teen/adult game players worldwide already without having released a single game console of their own-gaining support simply because they are Microsoft, that should all tell you something.

  10/11/01 Tuesday October 11th, 2001 XBOX Launch Date...< PREDICTION

  Ontogony Recapitulates Phylogony...
  <___The Dustman___> out <:msg recv>

  Microsoft Xbox Web-Site

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