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Strong growth in the number of Internet subscribers in Asia-Pacific should help the region overtake the U.S. as the largest Internet subscriber market by 2003, according to research released Monday by Gartner Inc.
By 2003, Gartner expects Asia-Pacific, including Japan, to have 183.3 million subscribers, compared to 162.8 million in the U.S. and 162.2 million in Europe. That represents annual growth of 33 percent in subscriber numbers over the next three years in Asia-Pacific. China alone has seen internet growth as high as 300% in previous years. The Asia-Pacific Region also includes Australia, which is also having increased internet growth.
Subscriber numbers increased by 65 percent during 2000, from 47.4 million at the beginning of the year to 78 million by the end of the year. That figure will top 100 million for the first time during 2001, climbing to 138 million at the end of 2002, according to Gartner's growth projections. The figure will rise to 248 million by 2005, Gartner forecast.
So where does this leave total internet users compared to the world population? According to these figures, total Internet Users worldwide, by 2005 would be near a billion, or 1 in 6 people worldwide. This follows population density, where Asia/China has the most people per mile than anywhere else in the world.
The main market drivers are falling connection prices, improved telecommunication infrastructure and strong pent-up demand to get online, especially in countries with big populations such as China and India. Access prices are cheaper in many Asian countries than in Europe and the U.S., so subscriber revenue will still be higher in the U.S. than in Asia in 2005 -- $21.2 billion compared to $17.2 billion -- although Asia will have many more subscribers by that time. By 2005 as well, many additonal internet services may be offered to subscribers bringing in additional revenues.
At the end of 2000, the Asia region's largest Internet market was Japan, with 24.4 million subscribers, followed by South Korea with 16.7 million, China with 14.6 million and Taiwan with 4.6 million subscribers. These four countries account for 76 percent of the region's Internet subscribers, Gartner said.
China will overtake South Korea this year and Japan in 2003, according to the report. By 2005, Japan and China between them will have about 151.5 million subscribers, representing about 61 percent of the total Asia-Pacific subscriber base. Gartner's figures for China are lower than those recently published by the government-affiliated China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC).
The fastest-growing Internet market in the region will be India, with annual subscriber growth of 44 percent from now until 2005, according to Gartner. It will then be the fourth-biggest Internet market in the region with 21.3 million subscribers, Gartner said.
The US is big, but with only 350+ Million citizens, we're going to have a hard time growing our Internet Use past that. However, it should be stated that we'll remain the largest Internet Using Country by far. When comparing regions, it simply isn't logical to compare the US alone to the entire Europe region or all of the countries in Asia. In the aspect of Internet Use by Country, the United States should hold this crown for many many years to come.
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Digital Media Area
